How Future Narratives Improve ChatGPT’s Oscars Predictions

19 Mar 2025

Authors:

(1) Pham Hoang Van, Department of Economics, Baylor University Waco, TX, USA (Van Pham@baylor.edu);

(2) Scott Cunningham, Department of Economics, Baylor University Waco, TX, USA (Scott Cunningham@baylor.edu).

Table of Links

Abstract and 1 Introduction

2 Direct vs Narrative Prediction

3 Prompting Methodology and Data Collection

4 Results

4.1 Establishing the Training Data Limit with Falsifications

4.2 Results of the 2022 Academy Awards Forecasts

5 Predicting Macroeconomic Variables

5.1 Predicting Inflation with an Economics Professor

5.2 Predicting Inflation with a Jerome Powell, Fed Chair

5.3 Predicting Inflation with Jerome Powell and Prompting with Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

5.4 Predicting Unemployment with an Economics Professor

6 Conjecture on ChatGPT-4’s Predictive Abilities in Narrative Form

7 Conclusion and Acknowledgments

Appendix

A. Distribution of Predicted Academy Award Winners

B. Distribution of Predicted Macroeconomic Variables

References

A. Distribution of Predicted Academy Award Winners

Detailed figures illustrating the distribution of predicted winners for each Academy Award category, using the four prompting styles, are provided here. These figures showcase the improved accuracy of GPT-4 in predicting winners when prompted with a future narrative.

Figure 1: Direct vs. Narrative Prompting: ChatGPT3.5 Predictions for Best Supporting Actor.

Figure 2: Direct vs. Narrative Prompting: ChatGPT4 Predictions for Best Supporting Actor.

Figure 3: Direct vs. Narrative Prompting: ChatGPT3.5 Predictions for Best Actor.

Figure 4: Direct vs. Narrative Prompting: ChatGPT4 Predictions for Best Actor.

Figure 5: Direct vs. Narrative Prompting: ChatGPT3.5 Predictions for Best Supporting Actress.

Figure 6: Direct vs. Narrative Prompting: ChatGPT4 Predictions for Best Supporting Actress.

Figure 7: Direct vs. Narrative Prompting: ChatGPT3.5 Predictions for Best Actress.

Figure 8: Direct vs. Narrative Prompting: ChatGPT4 Predictions for Best Actress.

Figure 9: Direct vs. Narrative Prompting: ChatGPT3.5 Predictions for Best Picture.

Figure 10: Direct vs. Narrative Prompting: ChatGPT4 Predictions for Best Picture.

This paper is available on arxiv under CC BY 4.0 DEED license.

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